Vancouver,, Nov 06, 2009 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX News Network) --

IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Portugal Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013.

"Subscriber growth is slowing down in Portugal's mobile operator space, but the industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was still +8.1% in 2Q.2009. We expect that the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Portugal will increase from 15.7 million in 2008 to 16.9 million in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "We expect TMN's subscriber base to increase from 6.94 million in 2008 to 7.48 million in 2013. Also, our model predicts that Vodafone Portugal's mobile subscriber base will increase from 5.58 million to 5.96 million and that of Optimus will increase from 3.19 to 3.52 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013."

"All of the three major wireless carriers will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from EUR18.52 in 2008 to EUR14.23 in 2013. Although Vodafone Portugal will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, we forecast that its monthly ARPU will still decline from EUR20.42 in 2008 to EUR15.94 in 2013. Monthly ARPUs at TMN and Optimus will also decline to EUR13.52 and EUR12.85 respectively in 2013," said Mr. Assanie.

IEMR's Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Portugal - TMN -TelecomunicaAAues Moveis Nacionais S.A., Vodafone Portugal ComunicaAAues Pessoais, S.A., and Optimus TelecomunicaAAues, S.A. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast include:

* Our model does not predict significant changes in market shares over the next five years. Our model forecasts that TMN will continue to be the largest operator in Portugal's wireless space with a subscriber market share of approximately 44.1% over the next five years. We expect that Vodafone Portugal's market share will decrease slightly from 35.5% to 35.1% while that of Optimus rises from 20.3% to 20.8% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

* We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve slightly from 37.0% in 2008 to 37.3% in 2013. TMN will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Vodafone Portugal and Optimus. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will be approximately 43.0%, 34.0%, and 30.1% in 2013.

IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

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